On the market

Is it wrong to miss investment opportunities? Or is it more stupid to bet on money in a bubble that may burst at any time?

The answer depends on how much investment risk you have, and everything is in between.

In the past two weeks, the financial products of the financial group colleagues are very keen to discuss the investment products non-bitcoin (bitcoin).

Last Wednesday (1st), when bitcoin prices broke through $6,500, colleagues became more excited. Some people suggest that it is not as good as a joint venture investment, each unit is 100 dollars, and the number of units invested is arbitrary. After all, the amount of investment is small and the risk is low. In case the bitcoin really falls, it will not be too heartbreaking. On the contrary, watching it repeatedly innovate at a high price but did not dare to enter the market, it seems stupid.

Then, some people say that they want to invest $100, some say $500, and some people are bold to get $1,000.

Later, the colleague who was responsible for purchasing Bitcoin on the Internet went on vacation, and the “collective investment” transaction would be lost.

Unexpectedly, in less than a few days, Bitcoin jumped to the new price last Sunday and smashed through $7,600. In other words, all of us “less earned” $1,100 because of the slow response. In the heartache, the next reaction is: Do you have to enter the market? Is it time to catch the Bitcoin Express?

This is believed to be the most entangled problem for many investors who are concerned about the trend of Bitcoin.

What is bitcoin? There have been a lot of news reports before, so I won’t go into details here. Simply put, Bitcoin is a virtual currency that uses blockchain technology as a payment system. According to online information, there are more than 900 such virtual currencies, but the bitcoin that was born in 2009 is the most well-known. The investors are the most familiar and most interested in investing.

At the beginning of the year, the value of 970 US dollars is currently rising to 6550 US dollars.

This year, the rise of Bitcoin is unstoppable. Based on the data of the trading platform Coinbase, this year’s opening year, a bitcoin value of 970 US dollars, as of 7 o’clock last night has been worth 6,550 US dollars, the value of the currency soared nearly six times.

The first opportunity for Bitcoin to rise this year is in mid-May, when the blackmail virus “WannaCry” swept the world, computer users have to pay about $300 in bitcoin to redeem electronic files, prompting Bitcoin in May. In the end, it quickly rushed to a new high of $2,000.

By mid-August, demand in Asia-Pacific markets such as Japan and South Korea continued to rise, pushing Bitcoin to break through $4,000.

Later, although Bitcoin was “siege” by many governments, such as the Chinese government’s full stop of bitcoin transactions in September, it continued to attract institutional investors and fund managers. Bitcoin’s gains are still strong, breaking through the $5,000 mark in mid-October.

Bitcoin has seen phenomenan gains since November, mainly because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest and most widely traded financial exchange, is preparing to launch bitcoin futures at the end of this year, which makes Bitcoin “into the room” and become a traditional market. Recognized investment products. As soon as the news came out, Bitcoin rose again and rose more than $1,000 in two days.

Will it appreciate again or become a bubble?

Looking at the current gains in Bitcoin, how much room for appreciation? Or is it a bubble in a blink of an eye? The market currently has two different voices.

Ronnie Moas, founder of Standpoint Research, a US market analyst firm that has recently been quoted, is a Bitcoin enthusiastic supporter. He believes that the limited supply of Bitcoin, coupled with the market’s loss of confidence in currency and other investment products, can make Bitcoin more and more hot.

This year, he has raised his forecast for Bitcoin several times, from $5,000 to $7,500 to $10,000. Recently, he predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $11,000 next year and can reach 50,000 in 10 years. Dollar.

The market analyst with more than 10 years of experience said in a media interview that he had not purchased stocks he had analyzed and recommended before, but now he put all his investments in virtual currency, repeatedly explaining his confidence in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s rise and then rise this year seems to confirm that Moss’ prediction is quite accurate. His media interviews and reports have been widely circulated on the Internet. He became the best spokesperson for Bitcoin, and his predictions have become a driving force for pushing up Bitcoin prices.

For those who are not optimistic about Bitcoin, he advises: “(On the sidelines) watching it rise another 1000%, should be more annoyed.”

The game between fools?

Indeed, there are many people who are not optimistic about bitcoin. The most classic of recent times is JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s “Bitcoin is a scam” theory. Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, also believes that, given the anonymity of Bitcoin, central banks will not allow large-scale bitcoin transactions, and bitcoin will eventually collapse.

The column of the Economist on the 1st of this month is directly based on the “Bitcoin bubble”, which is considered to be the “Greater fool theory” that supports the current trend of bitcoin, rather than bit. The intrinsic value of the currency.

Bo silly theory (also known as the biggest idiot theory) can be interpreted as a game between fools, meaning that investors are still willing to buy when they know that the price of stocks or other investment products has been overvalued, and hope that there will be more stupid people. Market psychology and behavior that take over at a higher price. If you can’t find a bigger idiot with a higher price, then you are the biggest fool.

At the end of this column, if everyone tries to profit from buying and selling bitcoin, the market will dry up sooner or later, and prices will collapse. When everyone is ready to sell bitcoin cash, the bubble is so smashed, and the consequences are unimaginable. This reminder is indeed an alarm for those who are interested in investing in Bitcoin.

So, is it really stupid to miss investment opportunities? Or is it more stupid to bet on money in a bubble that may burst at any time? The answer depends on how much investment risk you have, and everything is in between.

就势论市

究竟是错失投资机会比较傻?或是把钱押注在一个可能随时破灭的泡沫更傻呢?

答案终究取决于你有多大的投资风险胃口,一切就在一念之间。

过去两周,财经组同事非常热衷讨论的投资产品非比特币(bitcoin)莫属。

上周三(1日),当比特币价格直冲破6500美元时,同事们越聊越兴奋。有人就建议不如大家合资投资,每个单位100美元,投资多少单位个人随意。毕竟投资金额小,风险也低,万一比特币真的大跌也不会太心痛。反之,看着它一再创新高价位却不敢进场,好像笨了一些。

接着,有人说要投资100美元,有人说出500美元,也有人豪爽地要掏出1000美元。

后来,被大家推举负责上网购买比特币的同事放假去了,这笔“集体投资”交易也就不了了之。

没想到不到几天的功夫,上星期天晚上比特币又跃上新价位,飙涨破7600美元。也就是说,我们大家因为反应慢就“少赚”了1100美元。在心痛之余,接下来的反应就是:还要进场吗?还是时候赶搭比特币快车吗?

这相信也是不少关注比特币走势的投资散户最纠结的问题。

何谓比特币,之前已经有不少新闻报道,这里不详细赘述。简单地说,比特币是一种以区块链(blockchain)技术作为支付系统的虚拟货币。据网上资料,这类虚拟货币已有900多种,但属在2009年诞生的比特币最知名,投资者最熟悉,也最热衷投资。

开年时值970美元 目前涨至6550美元

今年来,比特币的涨势可说势不可挡。以交易平台Coinbase的数据为依据,今年开年时,一枚比特币值970美元,截至昨晚7时已值6550美元,币值飙涨近六倍。

比特币今年大涨的第一个契机是在5月中旬,勒索病毒“想哭”(WannaCry)席卷全球,电脑用户要赎回电子文件须支付约300美元的比特币,促使比特币在5月下旬快速冲上2000美元的新高。

到了8月中,日本和韩国等亚太市场的需求持续走高,推高比特币冲破4000美元。

后来,虽然比特币遭到多国政府“围攻”,例如中国政府9月份全面叫停比特币交易,但它继续吸引机构投资者和基金经理。比特币涨势仍然强劲,10月中突破5000美元大关。

比特币11月以来有惊人涨幅,主要是因为全球最大及产品面最广的金融交易所——芝加哥商品交易所准备在今年底推出比特币期货,这让比特币“登堂入室”,成为受传统市场承认的投资产品。这消息一出,比特币又再飙涨,两天内就涨逾1000美元。

会再升值还是变泡沫?

以比特币目前的涨势来看,它还有多大升值空间?抑或一转眼就成泡沫?市场目前有两种不同声音。

近来经常被引述的美国市场分析机构Standpoint Research创办人莫斯(Ronnie Moas)是比特币热衷支持者。他认为,比特币的限量供应,加上市场对货币和其他投资产品失去信心,能让比特币越来越炙手可热。

今年来,他已数度调高对比特币的预测,从5000美元至7500美元,再至1万美元,最近又预测比特币明年可涨至1万1000美元,10年后币值可达5万美元。

这名拥有10多年经验的市场分析师接受媒体访问时称,之前不曾购买自己分析和推荐的股票,现在则把所有投资都放在虚拟货币,一再说明他对比特币的信心。

比特币今年一涨再涨,似乎印证莫斯的预测颇为准确。他的媒体访问片段和报道在网上广泛流传,他成为比特币最佳代言人,他的预测也就成为推高比特币价格的一股动力。

对于不看好比特币的人,他奉劝一句:“(在场外)旁观它再涨1000%,应该会更感懊恼。”

傻瓜之间的博弈?

确实,不看好比特币的也大有人在。近来最经典的莫过于摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行长戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)的“比特币是骗局”论。国际货币基金组织前首席经济学家罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)也认为,鉴于比特币的匿名性质,各国中央银行不会允许大规模的比特币交易,比特币最终必然崩盘。

《经济学人》本月1日的一篇专栏文章直接以“比特币泡沫”为题,认为是“博傻理论”(Greater fool theory)在支撑着目前比特币飙涨的趋势,而不是比特币的内涵价值。

博傻理论(又称为最大笨蛋理论),可解释为傻瓜之间的博弈,指投资者在明知股票或其他投资产品价格已被高估时仍然愿意买入,寄望下来有更傻的人以更高价接手的市场心理和行为。如果找不到出更高价的更大笨蛋,那你就是最大的笨蛋。

这篇专栏文章的结尾写道,如果人人都尝试靠买卖比特币牟利,市场迟早枯竭,价格会随之崩溃。到时人人都抢先要卖掉比特币套现,泡沫就这么戳破了,后果不堪设想。这一提醒,对有意进场投资比特币的人来说,确实是一记警钟。

所以,究竟是错失投资机会比较傻?或是把钱押注在一个可能随时破灭的泡沫更傻呢?答案终究取决于你有多大的投资风险胃口,一切就在一念之间。

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