On the market
Is it wrong to miss investment opportunities? Or is it more stupid to bet on money in a bubble that may burst at any time?
The answer depends on how much investment risk you have, and everything is in between.
In the past two weeks, the financial products of the financial group colleagues are very keen to discuss the investment products non-bitcoin (bitcoin).
Last Wednesday (1st), when bitcoin prices broke through $6,500, colleagues became more excited. Some people suggest that it is not as good as a joint venture investment, each unit is 100 dollars, and the number of units invested is arbitrary. After all, the amount of investment is small and the risk is low. In case the bitcoin really falls, it will not be too heartbreaking. On the contrary, watching it repeatedly innovate at a high price but did not dare to enter the market, it seems stupid.
Then, some people say that they want to invest $100, some say $500, and some people are bold to get $1,000.
Later, the colleague who was responsible for purchasing Bitcoin on the Internet went on vacation, and the “collective investment” transaction would be lost.
Unexpectedly, in less than a few days, Bitcoin jumped to the new price last Sunday and smashed through $7,600. In other words, all of us “less earned” $1,100 because of the slow response. In the heartache, the next reaction is: Do you have to enter the market? Is it time to catch the Bitcoin Express?
This is believed to be the most entangled problem for many investors who are concerned about the trend of Bitcoin.
What is bitcoin? There have been a lot of news reports before, so I won’t go into details here. Simply put, Bitcoin is a virtual currency that uses blockchain technology as a payment system. According to online information, there are more than 900 such virtual currencies, but the bitcoin that was born in 2009 is the most well-known. The investors are the most familiar and most interested in investing.
At the beginning of the year, the value of 970 US dollars is currently rising to 6550 US dollars.
This year, the rise of Bitcoin is unstoppable. Based on the data of the trading platform Coinbase, this year’s opening year, a bitcoin value of 970 US dollars, as of 7 o’clock last night has been worth 6,550 US dollars, the value of the currency soared nearly six times.
The first opportunity for Bitcoin to rise this year is in mid-May, when the blackmail virus “WannaCry” swept the world, computer users have to pay about $300 in bitcoin to redeem electronic files, prompting Bitcoin in May. In the end, it quickly rushed to a new high of $2,000.
By mid-August, demand in Asia-Pacific markets such as Japan and South Korea continued to rise, pushing Bitcoin to break through $4,000.
Later, although Bitcoin was “siege” by many governments, such as the Chinese government’s full stop of bitcoin transactions in September, it continued to attract institutional investors and fund managers. Bitcoin’s gains are still strong, breaking through the $5,000 mark in mid-October.
Bitcoin has seen phenomenan gains since November, mainly because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest and most widely traded financial exchange, is preparing to launch bitcoin futures at the end of this year, which makes Bitcoin “into the room” and become a traditional market. Recognized investment products. As soon as the news came out, Bitcoin rose again and rose more than $1,000 in two days.
Will it appreciate again or become a bubble?
Looking at the current gains in Bitcoin, how much room for appreciation? Or is it a bubble in a blink of an eye? The market currently has two different voices.
Ronnie Moas, founder of Standpoint Research, a US market analyst firm that has recently been quoted, is a Bitcoin enthusiastic supporter. He believes that the limited supply of Bitcoin, coupled with the market’s loss of confidence in currency and other investment products, can make Bitcoin more and more hot.
This year, he has raised his forecast for Bitcoin several times, from $5,000 to $7,500 to $10,000. Recently, he predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $11,000 next year and can reach 50,000 in 10 years. Dollar.
The market analyst with more than 10 years of experience said in a media interview that he had not purchased stocks he had analyzed and recommended before, but now he put all his investments in virtual currency, repeatedly explaining his confidence in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s rise and then rise this year seems to confirm that Moss’ prediction is quite accurate. His media interviews and reports have been widely circulated on the Internet. He became the best spokesperson for Bitcoin, and his predictions have become a driving force for pushing up Bitcoin prices.
For those who are not optimistic about Bitcoin, he advises: “(On the sidelines) watching it rise another 1000%, should be more annoyed.”
The game between fools?
Indeed, there are many people who are not optimistic about bitcoin. The most classic of recent times is JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s “Bitcoin is a scam” theory. Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, also believes that, given the anonymity of Bitcoin, central banks will not allow large-scale bitcoin transactions, and bitcoin will eventually collapse.
The column of the Economist on the 1st of this month is directly based on the “Bitcoin bubble”, which is considered to be the “Greater fool theory” that supports the current trend of bitcoin, rather than bit. The intrinsic value of the currency.
Bo silly theory (also known as the biggest idiot theory) can be interpreted as a game between fools, meaning that investors are still willing to buy when they know that the price of stocks or other investment products has been overvalued, and hope that there will be more stupid people. Market psychology and behavior that take over at a higher price. If you can’t find a bigger idiot with a higher price, then you are the biggest fool.
At the end of this column, if everyone tries to profit from buying and selling bitcoin, the market will dry up sooner or later, and prices will collapse. When everyone is ready to sell bitcoin cash, the bubble is so smashed, and the consequences are unimaginable. This reminder is indeed an alarm for those who are interested in investing in Bitcoin.
So, is it really stupid to miss investment opportunities? Or is it more stupid to bet on money in a bubble that may burst at any time? The answer depends on how much investment risk you have, and everything is in between.
近来经常被引述的美国市场分析机构Standpoint Research创办人莫斯（Ronnie Moas）是比特币热衷支持者。他认为，比特币的限量供应，加上市场对货币和其他投资产品失去信心，能让比特币越来越炙手可热。
确实，不看好比特币的也大有人在。近来最经典的莫过于摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）首席执行长戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）的“比特币是骗局”论。国际货币基金组织前首席经济学家罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）也认为，鉴于比特币的匿名性质，各国中央银行不会允许大规模的比特币交易，比特币最终必然崩盘。
《经济学人》本月1日的一篇专栏文章直接以“比特币泡沫”为题，认为是“博傻理论”（Greater fool theory）在支撑着目前比特币飙涨的趋势，而不是比特币的内涵价值。