For those of you who may not have seen this, let’s take a closer look at the Fundstrat report, I mentioned in my last post, “Survey results: Institutions vs Crypto Twitter”, which makes interesting reading.
This report asked 10 questions of 25 unnamed institutions working with Fundstrat and 6 similar questions were asked in a crypto Twitter survey, which received about 9,500 responses, representing a fairly large sample size, in order to gauge the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market and the various projects out there.
On the first page we see that institutions see more potential growth in Bitcoin by EOY 2019, as 57% say Bitcoin will be worth more than $15k by then, compared to just 40% of Crypto Twitter (CT). This is interesting and unexpected, as we would probably have seen the opposite last year and the institutions labeling Bitcoin as a bubble.
Question 1, and we see both institutions and CT in agreement that the most important macro-factor in cryptocurrency prices is central banks, whilst geopolitical tension is important driver of cryptocurrency adoption, which could include things such as the evasion of sanctions by Russia, North Korea, Iran and the trade war between the US and China.
Questions 2, relates to Q3 and only asks institutions about their sentiment regarding the possibility of a recession within the next 18 months, the answer being a marginal no, but the institutions are more confident that cryptocurrency would function as a safe-haven asset during the next recession, with 72% of institutional investors agreeing with this, as compared to 59% of CT.
In question 4, we see a 50/50 agreement between institutions and CT on the question of whether the cryptocurrency market has now found the bottom and if we add in the EOY figures, we get a total of 67% for institutions and 68% for CT. For those institutions that believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed-out, the average market low price was $4,350 by March 2019.
We may be about to test these opinions, as many are now predicting a big move for Bitcoin either way soon.
Question 5 turns to price prediction for EOY 2018 and EOY 2019, with institutions giving a median price of $8,456 for 2018 and in 2019 the majority of both institutions and CT give a price above $15k on nearly 5,5k votes for CT, the average of institutions being $18,162. None of the institutions believed that Bitcoin would exceed the ATH of 2017.
Question 6 has hand-written responses, no multiple choice to the problem Bakkt is solving and institutions shared the enthusiasm of retail investors for Bakkt, with 39% of institutions stating that it increased positive cryptocurrency adoption and since this survey was conducted the ErisX exchange has been announced as a platform with the same aims as Bakkt.
Question 7 asks about the consequences of the US regulatory stance and surprisingly 60% of institutions believe that the US regulatory stance is correct and that the rest of the world will follow suit. This can be explained perhaps as mainly US institutions giving a partisan response.
Question 8 receives an interesting response with institutions and CT sharply divided on the question of Ripple xrp. The overwhelming favourite of institutions is Bitcoin, whilst EOS receives an 18% approval.
Question 9 seeks opinion on which cryptocurrencies make the least sense as an investment and here Ripple xrp comes out on top with institutions and is a close second with CT, although both seem to be on agreement on Tron, who are set to launch their virtual machine as any day now. Perhaps institutions have responded in this way about xrp because they don’t want it to be ruled as a security, or perhaps we should take their response at face value?
Question 10 deals with the factors that will be the future drivers of the cryptocurrency market and those that will have a negative impact.
What are the opinions of the learned Trybe community on the Fundstrat report? Do you think Bitcoin has bottomed? Do you agree with the price predictions, the assessments of the best and worst projects out there? Your comments are invited.