Well folks it is safe to say that a short term to intermediate term bottom I believe has been made. A lot of technical damage has been done and the doomsayers are out in full fledged ridicule mode of crypto for the past couple days and weeks. I can say that I honestly warned all of my followers and the platform that this WAS GOING TO HAPPEN back in February. It is all here and it is honest, market based opinion from studying many markets that have been around long before crypto was invented.

The February lows were going to be tested and they were, multiple times, and the fact that bitcoin kept testing them is a sign of weakness and the big boys just traying to hold it up, now there are MORE people trapped than there was before and the space was just not ready to fundamentally move forward again.
You could clearly see the lower highs across the board (and now people are starting to accept them in hindsight of course) from what I have been telling you.

Now that we have broken down, alot of noobs and grandmas and grandpa have thrown in the towel and we are moving closer day by day to the next move up in my opinion. This is not going to be a V shaped rally to new highs. NO WAY NO HOW. This is going to be a PROCESS that will take much like the last one did a few years ago due to the damage that has been done in my opinion and market experience.
The chart below shows a PROSPECTIVE repeating path that could possibly happen and just goes to show how much damage has been done. Bitcoin will need to make a LOW. then it will need to GO SIDEWAYS and PROVE it can hold this LOW before it can start moving higher. Any quick move up will likely be sold over the course of days and weeks. Bitcoin will need to prove that it can HOLD SIDEWAYS and MAKE HIGHER LOWS before I start to believe the long term bottom has been made again.

I am looking for something like this. I want to be ACCUMULATING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 YEARS for the next one. The move to Bitcoin 100k+, maybe even 200k or more before 2023. 90% of the crypto coins are going to go to zero and it is important we get this stage of the game out of the way NOW rather than prolonging it for LATER.
I am looking at this 200 Weekly MA that bitcoin seems to be somewhat tracking from the last major bull run and it is coming down into it soon…

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Responses

  1. Workin2005

    Nice analysis. I agree in principle. The only caveat is the introduction of institutional money. You’re right about retail. They’ve been burned and are hesitant. That aside, once the SEC gets off their ass and approves ETF’s, I think we’ll see an explosion that’ll dwarf 2017. We may see approval in Q1 2019, or we may not see it until later in the year. But it is coming…and there are billions on the sidelines just waiting for it.

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    1. Cryptodad

      Seconded. I would feel better if we hit $2900 level, thereby flushing out a little more garbage coins and focusing more on what’s real. Either way, they’re coming. I’ll take sideways for a while so I can accumulate more with my measly chump change.

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  2. Cryptodad

    Nice analysis. I still think we’re looking for one more capitulation with a red volume bar larger than the red bar in January 2018. That would compete the “U” pattern in volume. This last one we had means it is coming within a few months IMO. Compare to the red bars in Sept. 2014 (your arrow) and January 2015 on the chart. Then we can accumulate for several months and watch for a green bar of the same size or slightly larger. Once that green bar hits it will signify trend reversal and it’s game on bulls!

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  3. Nicholas

    So the final consequences: we dont know, what will happen 😀
    Pretty good analysis, but be honest, if i throw my tee-leafs to the desk, and try to predicted the future of btc based on that, that will be almost exact, what this kind of theories 😀

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