BMI: Bitcoin Market Index
Initially we will have a look at Total Market Cap. The total Cap has been sitting at around 182 Billion which has been the highs during 3rd and initial days of 4th quarter in 2017. And the prices have also been in the same range with in that period. The volumes are also same when compared to the previous year.
If we observe that the total market cap excluding bitcoin it has been same as of including bitcoin total market cap. It has been sitting around 90B to 100B. But the interesting factor in this chart is that the volume. Volume is no where comparative during last quarter in 2017. The current daily volume in altcoins has been more than the previous. This shows that people are taking their side towards the altcoins rather than bitcoin. It might add fuel to BCH hard fork war.
Bitcoin market dominance has also been same around 50-55% during the last quarter in 2017. But the dominance has been consistently recording higher lows in bitcoin. But the individual alts performance has been very low in the dominance charts. The reason being lot of ICO’s were registered this year and they have taken a fair amount of market cap. But considering the current scenario with new regulations in force they will be losing the fair amount of valuations in coming months. And lot of fake coins or tokens might be removed from the market and only potential coins or tokens might secure their spot in this market. This indicates still there is a room for correction in the market.
The above chart is the reason for my todays title. BMI indicates BODY MASS INDEX but considering crypto market it has been renamed as BITCOIN MARKET INDEX.
I have taken weekly chart of bitcoin to analyze the current situation. In this weekly chart the bitcoin has dropped below 100 week moving average. If the price didn’t cross the 100 week MA then more correction is inevitable. If the weekly index didn’t sustain current levels during the weekly chart that is 5500 then it will drop to 4800. If you watch the 200 week MA it has been around 3200. But if the price didn’t sustain here it might touch 200 week MA. In that scenario it will touch 3500. This scenario is dependant on 4800 support level strength. This means we need to watch the price action for the next two quarters.
The RSI and Stochastic RSI also indicates that there is room for more correction as they were not over sold in the weekly chart. But it has been oversold in the daily. This means there is short term uptrend which might be for a month or around that range. So please be watchful.
All the views presented in this article is purely my personal views. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.