Thinking back one year, to November 2017, paints a stark contrast in the minds of anyone that took part in the crazy run up to Bitcoin’s highest price ever. In the rally up to almost 20,000 dollar per Bitcoin, people were making predictions that, come January, we would all have a Lambo.
Now the exact opposite sentiment seems to prevail, as I hear a lot of people waiting for Bitcoin’s price to drop even lower than 3,000 dollar to buy back in. That is if they didn’t leave the cryptosphere altogether. In my post from yesterday I mentioned the tweet by Nye The Crypto Guy that said:
“Remember, there was a euphoria phase for bulls when they said, ‘This will never stop going up.’ There is also a euphoria stage for bears where they say, ‘This will never stop going down.'”
I repeat that here because it’s the perfect way to start explaining how I feel about this. FOMO, the Fear Of Missing Out on possible profits, works both ways it seems. Last year, when we were all euphoric and thought Bitcoins ascent toward the Moon was unstoppable, there were a few cautious voices that warned that this was way too fast and way too much; some actually predicted a massive correction to be necessary after that crazy bull-run. And to be fair, some of those voices were technical analysts even if I stand 100% behind what I said in yesterday’s post; a lot of those analysts were on the forefront of the moon-sentiments too.
These minority voices were met with a lot of negative comments and reactions. “Are you blind? Can’t you see we’re going to the Moon? Mass adoption is around the corner, you fool,” and similar remarks were made against those tentative bears. And now, just one year later, similar remarks are made against those who say now’s the time to accumulate more Bitcoin. “Are you blind? Can’t you see we’re going to 1000 dollar? Mass adoption is years away, you fool!” Now the fledgling bull is the object of scorn from those trying to maximize profits; this contrast I find remarkable and illuminating.
This one-year contrast is in my eyes the perfect illustration of how much these markets are sentiment-driven, and how these sentiments relate only to the possibility of making a profit. They don’t call it FOMO-buying and panic-selling for no reason; the fear and panic are in no way related to anything fundamental or intrinsic about the stock or asset in question, but solely to profits and losses. Especially if you don’t adhere to the first rule about investing in young and risky enterprises, “never invest more than you can afford to lose”, you’ll be stressed to no end when you see prices free-falling back to Earth.
If you’re invested in crypto because you believe in it’s fundamentals however, times have never been better and the future has never been brighter. Some might think the SEC coming down hard on ICO’s is a bad thing, and the irrational, emotion-driven markets react accordingly. But is it really that bad? Weren’t we almost unanimously agreeing that 90% of the ICO’s are trash or cash-grabs? I for one am glad we can start saying goodbye to the vast number of worthless coins and tokens. ICO’s were also part of that incredible bull-run of last year. Since then they’ve created a lot of interest in the crypto-sphere, but they’ve also frequently given it a bad name.
Nasdaq is starting it’s own version of BAKKT in Q1 2019 too:
Despite the rapidly descending price of Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market crash, the world’s second largest stock exchange, Nasdaq, is planning to launch Bitcoin futures in 2019. Bloomberg reports Nasdaq has been working closely with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), to receive regulatory approval for their proposed Bitcoin futures launch in the first quarter of 2019. […] With both Bakkt and Nasdaq Bitcoin futures set to launch in Q1 2019, Lee and others have plenty of reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin. Especially considering the fact we may have already reached or are close to the Bitcoin price bottom. – source: Invest In Blockchain – November 29, 2018
Not that I’m thrilled about big money coming in and make Bitcoin their plaything, but this news should be seen as bullish news. It’s almost as if big exchanges (the two biggest in the world actually) are actually FOMO’ing in to get Bitcoin on their option-list. Those who think that Bitcoin is dead are just wrong. And I fear that those who are waiting for an even lower bottom could very well meet the same fate as those who thought the Moon was for grabs a year ago, and miss this opportunity to buy some mor Bitcoin.
To be clear: I’m not an analyst of any kind, but just your average crypto-brother. So this is in no way to be taken as financial, or any other kind of advice. I’m just looking around and see some good, some bad, and some crazy things happening that I wanted to share with you 🙂