I last posted that we had a break down scenario in BTC but instead we had a strong spike into the upper part of the channel that has governed the price of Bitcoin since February. This spike, as most know, was catalyzed by rumor or news that Tether was going under. While this spike could increase the likelihood of a bottom in using Elliott Wave this belief relies on truncation where the fifth comes in short. This is possible, but not reliable, and rather rare. Further, we have a micro downside setup to resume my preferred path to $4600. Still, in my own trading I am on guard until we either break over $6750 or break under $6360 again.

I now have added the red diagonal path as I see the most likely path for a breakout. I don’t see a standard impulse because we are not moving in impulsive subwaves higher. In fact all of our recent drops are impulsive, while retraces up corrective in structure. This particularly does not bode well for the bottom being in. That said, until we break one way or another, I need to be careful about being cavalier.

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