I last posted that we had a break down scenario in BTC but instead we had a strong spike into the upper part of the channel that has governed the price of Bitcoin since February. This spike, as most know, was catalyzed by rumor or news that Tether was going under. While this spike could increase the likelihood of a bottom in using Elliott Wave this belief relies on truncation where the fifth comes in short. This is possible, but not reliable, and rather rare. Further, we have a micro downside setup to resume my preferred path to $4600. Still, in my own trading I am on guard until we either break over $6750 or break under $6360 again.

I now have added the red diagonal path as I see the most likely path for a breakout. I don’t see a standard impulse because we are not moving in impulsive subwaves higher. In fact all of our recent drops are impulsive, while retraces up corrective in structure. This particularly does not bode well for the bottom being in. That said, until we break one way or another, I need to be careful about being cavalier.

Note that free 15 day trials are available for our trading room and community on Elliott Wave Trader, where I am a full time analyst. In that trading room, I do analysis of over 100 cryptocurrencies, down to the 1HR chart, and a few large caps down tot he 15m chart for short term traders, You’ll rub nose with, professional traders and traders in the learning process, while getting trade calls and ongoing direction for the market. No credit card is needed for a trial.

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/cryptocurrency

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