Well that’s a little bit interesting now isn’t it? A $10 billion volume day for Bitcoin. A flash in the pan, perhaps. Almost 2.4 billion for EOS.

Zooming out to the 30-day global chart there’s been a clear uptick in volume.

Zooming out further to the one year chart we can clearly see a recent return of volume over the last few weeks.

The top cryptos are beginning to show a return to impressive volume numbers.

Today’s numbers far exceed this time last year.

What’s it All Mean?

Does this mean we are going to the moon? No.

Could we go lower? Yes.

A lot lower? Yes.

But would we stay there?

At these volumes no. No, we would not. (In my opinion)

As they say – Hope for the best, plan for the worst. I see this turned on its head for the crypto market. Should these elevated volumes continue and the prices tank to new lows (sub $85 billion market cap) I foresee myself going on something of a shopping spree.

First and foremost BTC, with EOS a close second and a smattering of other projects I believe have a very bright future over a multi-year horizon.

So What Am I Doing Right Now?

Nothing new. I continue to dollar cost average into a number of projects. Disposable income only and the same rate as the previous months. The only change is that I now accumulate more Bitcoin every week as against once every two weeks.

The Bear Remains in Charge

I remain on the sidelines in terms of serious investment. The overall risk profile is still negative – any crypto you invest in is more likely to be worth less (but not worthless) next week. Longterm I believe the sky is the limit but in the short term, I respect what the charts are telling me – beware.

Are we forming a bottom in BTC? The weekly chart offers a tantalizing glimpse of that possibility but its very easy to see those lower highs. Remember, it’s largely fruitless to guess the bottom you’ll likely run out of capital before you get it right.

Note

There’s a lot more complexity to the volume metric than I’ve highlighted here.

Resources

You can learn a little more about volume in the context of the crypto market here.

The related concept of wash trading was recently looked at by Matt of Trybe.

For quality market updates with a keen awareness of the role of volume checkout Workin2005.


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Responses

  1. James Diegel

    Yes, interesting times indeed. And this, ‘it’s largely fruitless to guess the bottom you’ll likely run out of capital before you get it right’ – for sure, at the very least always hold at least a little back. In the grand scheme of things it is not as necessary to hit the bottom as it is to put that capital into projects that will be the best movers in the next bull. Sure, opportunity cost may stall our profits in the next dip, but hey, that opportunity cost should never be your next lunch money anyway. Like you, I’m kinda sitting on the sidelines at present. Could, and do dabble here and there, but I’ve resolved that either way we go I refuse to get caught out again by market emotions. Like you I’m more than happy enough to accumulate at lower prices both BTC and EOS among a couple other things and understand that the moon is far off and will likely remain so for some time yet. That said, yeah crypto – you shall imho liberate us someday – and if that day comes later rather than sooner, at the very least you have liberated me to see potential of all things macro in this so personalized world that we tend to too readily attribute to the way things have always and will always remain 😉

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    1. CryptosDecrypted Post author

      I always enjoy reading and learning from your thoughtful comments James. Yes, in the long run, crypto may serve to profoundly liberate us (financially, socially and politically) though dark clouds gather on the horizon (picture China’s Social Credit Scheme married to blockchain).I’m actually working on a post on China’s role on the crypto landscape but its a few weeks out. Cheers.

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  2. Zeus69

    Well I don’t have much to say, I think Jimmy said it all. A great post needless to say. I’m always weary of crypto in general ATM been burnt badly before like I’m sure many have. Thanks for the insights, looks promising with the volumes growing though. 😉
    Regards,
    Mark (Zeus69)

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