This entry is part 13 of 15 in the series Life of a Small Time Investor

Thank you for reading, I am Dukefish, an EOS advocate and this blog series “Life of a Small Time Investor” is intended to share my experience with the crypto world and help those learn from my mistakes and triumphs. Though as always, this blog is not investment advice just how the chips have fallen for me so far. The greatest knowledge I can pass on to you is, make sure that you Do Your Own Research!

The Bear is Still Hibernating 

 

Well January has been pretty much a sideways and gentle tilt back down once again. Thankfully Bitcoin (BTC) did not break it’s support of $3200, but with the emerging wedge I spoke of in last entry, we went down instead of up and BTC is floating around the $3600 mark. There was that brief push to $4000 but this can be put down to the increase demand in Ethereum (ETH) leading up to the planned hardfork.

The Constantinople fork had a lot of changes and was heavily anticipated by the community.  It seems however as will most ETH related news that it has been delayed again. This is due to a major security flaw was found and the hard fork has been postponed and possibly split into two separate forks to implement fixes. If ETH continues to have this stop start traction with its development, it faces the risk of falling behind other projects and blockchain networks than can already deliver features and functionality.

Many are still hoping that January is the month of capitulation, however this still wont be clear until we can all look back at the charts in hindsight and point and say see there it is, how did we not know. I feel those who are calling for BTC to return to previous ATH of $1250 before the market will gain any bullish traction could end up being proved right, but if in 2019 state and private companies begin to FOMO into blockchain and this ecosystem, we might see capitulation way above this $1250 value.

Deloitte Report

Now I mentioned Deloitte in my XLM report and some of the partnership programs they are developing over there but this recent report launched and commissioned by them has the cryptospace a buzz.  The company surveyed 1000 companies that had ‘blockchain experts’ working with them and asked a range of questions on their attitudes towards the blockchain space. The key number is  that 95% of surveyed firms are investing in distributed ledger technology.

A key factor to draw from this report is: “While blockchain is not quite ready for primetime, it is getting closer to its breakout moment every day. Momentum is shifting from a focus on learning and exploring the potential of the technology to identifying and building practical business applications.”  The fear of missing out by companies and the potential for disruption in their respective sectors has started the wheels turning for investment. 

According to the survey, about 26% of companies will invest anywhere between $1 million to $5 million on blockchain tech while 23% will spend between $5 million and $10 million. 84% of respondents also believe that blockchain is scalable and will eventually be adopted in the mainstream. 84%  of respondents (whether is the same 84% I can not say) also believe that blockchain will offer more security as compared to traditional IT systems.

39% of the respondents are also concerned about regulatory compliance of the technology which I am surprised is not higher, as this technology is growing so fast, countries and legal frameworks will struggle to keep pace with this sector.About half the companies also suggest that they are willing to join a blockchain consortium with their competitors and less than a third are already participating in one.

The mantra of those saying that Bitcoin is dead and cryptocurrency will never take off, is just hot air. Granted the time scale is not defined but this space is truly going to change society and day to day lives of us all. Whether it is 5 years, 20 or 50 this technology is here to stay and will not be going anywhere.

EOS

Well the biggest news with our favourite chain, EOS is the introduction of the referendum functionality and is the first step towards governance on chain by the chain. Any EOS account can make a proposal for everyone to vote upon, as well as creating a poll for users to vote on. For any proposal to become a legitimate change it requires 15% of all EOS votes to be implemented, or 150 million votes.

This at first seems like a low bar of entry but in reality this is not the case. With approximately of all EOS tokens staked and Block.one’s 10% not currently used to create votes, there needs to be between 30 and 35% voter participation in order to pass these proposals.

There are multi sites offering access to the new system and allow you to cast your votes, I am going to suggest EOS Authority’s portal at present. As it is what I have used and I think it has a clear and easy navigable UI. Of course you need scatter to interact with the referendum and polls but this is easily performed.

The main two referendums that are gaining traction are the REX4ALL and 1token1vote. The first I am all in favour for in which RAMfee and EOSIO.names cost(s) are added to the overall pool of the REX returns. This helps move the liquidity from these accounts instead of having them locked out or theoretically ‘burned’ and adds incentive to those who will be using REX to stake and use the system to come.

The second referendum, 1token1vote  is a much more drastic change to the network in which it will change you voting power, by instead of your token weight being able to vote for 30 Block producers, you will be only able to assign each token to a BP. Now I understand that the rationale behind this proposal is to break the alleged collusion between some of the larger block producers, as well as to deter those from vote buying.

I actually voted against this as I think it penalizes the small voter and the smaller block producers as now I would have to use my smaller stake on a fewer selection of BP’s and not a total of 30.  As many BP’s are doing great work for the ecosystem and I want to lend them my support as trivial as it may be on the grand scheme of things.

Scatter Update

Scatter has lost its charming blue colour and has updated to version 10.1, with a new gray-scale theme to help those with vision impairment to use easily. Personally I’d like the option of changing the themes between the two but this is just a negligible part of the update. Full details can be seen on the GitHub release but main features are the UI changes, the ability to exchange some coins,an internal history, portfolio tracker and security updates.

As well as the release of desktop 10.1, it should be noted that there was a minor update for those who are still using the web extension app. This adds the message to the web-app of warning to upgrade to desktop usage, as the extension is no longer supported, nor has it been for the last 6 months.

Trybe

So the last airdrop of Trybe tokens happened a day or so later than the planned launch on the 11th of Jan. As many are aware there was an error with the API of the dfuse application in that the ‘expected airdrop’ value was incorrect and most people only received about a third of the value quoted.

While disappointing in terms of  volume as you were expecting more, but these are still free airdrops on top of what you already own. It seems that a significant majority of people dumped their Trybe tokens on exchanges and it has decreased in value overall by a noticeable margin. With this monthly airdrop model this can be expected, though I think the percentage points drop was much higher than anyone  predicted.

The element of staking is key to driving up value by taking the coins out of circulation, I think a lot of people dumping coins were doing so to make short term gains, as the Trybe road-map highlights there are big plans and aspirations, maybe if you want to fill your bags, seizing this reduced cost could be a great opportunity.

The recent change of submitting posts with one category only is due to the upcoming interface changes and the nature of how Trybe is going to evolve. While a little restrictive if you are talking across a range of topics, it just means that you will have to focus your tags to be broader than just the category listed.

It should also be noted on the telegram channel, Tom asked people to fill out a poll regarding an extension of the pre-sale for another 15 days. At time of publishing the total pre-sale tokens are under 30% sold, the costs is also much higher than if you bought on an exchange and exchange tokens are liquid not auto staked as pre-sale tokens are.

However to increase incentive of users to buy from pre-sale there is a 35 Million bonus giveaway to the top 200 pre-sale holders. I made the point of why not to all pre-sale contributors but as you can see on the thread and reply, you need to have only invested approximately 20 EOS to be classed in this top 200.

Moving Forward

I expect that things will continue to move sideways for the next few months, unless a major catalyst occurs. There are still many who are hoping that prices will continue to fall, which if it is the case, bags can be filled on the cheap but I think further drops in value and overall market cap will start to hinder innovation and development. There are many projects out there and it would be a shame to see them fold due to funding issues.

I am pleased EOS and Block.One have the warchest and anyone is able to apply to the VC fund. So I think EOS has more resilience than other networks to endure the bear further. The market will wipe out weak hands and short term players who are trying to make a quick buck. The repeated mantra is that blockchain technology is going to reap the rewards for those who are patient and invest in projects that will bear rich juicy fruit in the future.

Thank you for your time.

– Dukefish

(If you enjoyed this article why not check out some of my others)

—> Previous “Life of Small Time Investor” Blog Entry

—> Jargon Buster and Glossary

—> Stellar Lumens 2019 Special Report

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Responses

  1. Zeus69

    Cool post bud, ”
    “I feel those who are calling for BTC to return to previous ATH of $1250 before the market will gain any bullish traction could end up being proved right, but if in 2019 state and private companies begin to FOMO into blockchain and this ecosystem, we might see capitulation way above this $1250 value.”- IMO, if this happens which is very possible, then I thin the switcharoo will happen, and I think ETH will be number one with EOS close on tail. Just my opinion bud.
    thanks for sharing.
    Regards,
    Mark (Zeus69)

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    1. Dukefish Post author

      I think people will move into the top 20 currencies overall. ETH has XRP to deal with in terms of fighting for the number #2 spot. With the recent delays I think ETH is at a disadvantage and risk losing projects to other chains

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    1. Dukefish Post author

      No I think you are right, I imagine more sideways movement and maybe a dip further. I would just like to see capitulation in the 2000 to 3000 mark, thanks for your comment and reading, I am very grateful!

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  2. Jungle Onion

    Great, your series are awesome. Trybe is definitely my investment of 2019 along with EOS and some ethereum projects. I’m not sure if investors will stay maximalists with bitcoin but for sure it will remain, although the 52% of dominance will definitely be tested with projects that are fixing the scalability issues of BTC.

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    1. Dukefish Post author

      Thank you for your kind words, I am enjoying writing these. Yeah Trybe has great potential I am so excited for the implement of the roadmap and all the discussions on telegram.

      Yes BTC dominance needs to drop and let some of other altcoins a piece of the pie!

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  3. CryptosDecrypted

    Thanks for another informative crypto round-up @dukefish. It’s interesting you mentioned a possible floor for BTC. I just finished a podcast on that very topic – I’ll post it this Thursday or Friday. The Scatter team is amazingly productive – great that they also focus on EOS. Cheers.

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  4. firedream

    Thank you for this post @dukefish!
    As you said, while people selling their TRYBE right after the airdrop, I use this as an opportunity to buy with low cost and increase my TRYBE gradually.
    The TRYBE roadmap is clear and management takes it seriously.
    Let’s see together what the future may bring!

    (0)