This year the crypto market experienced the bear in all its glory. After last year’s bull run, most parties have become disillusioned. Nevertheless the topic blockchain and crypto currency is a topic, which in my opinion will accompany us for quite a while. Quite apart from Bitcoin, which serves this analysis more or less as a representative of all crypto currencies, many new candidates will get involved in the new market.Based on this conviction, I published an analysis of technology adaptation a few months ago. Today I would like to present this to you on Trybe.

In addition, a classification regarding the adaptation of crypto currencies is to be made. The following figure shows the life cycle of technology adaptations and provides information on which phase and which applications adapt the respective technology.


Market Forecast: Blockchain

So far, Bitcoin has not been integrated into their highly frequented infrastructures by Facebook, Netflix, Amazon or Google. For the mainstream user, there is as yet no comprehensive application of the digital currency. For this reason, crypto currencies, especially the Bitcoin, although they have a market capital of over 100 billion US dollars, are currently still in the advanced stage of initial adaptation. With the implementation into the mainstream and increasing the benefit for average users, the adaptation of digital currencies will progress faster. The graph below serves as a basis for this statement, giving exclusion from the dissemination and adaptation of past technology innovations from 1900 to 2005 in American households.

The chart shows that the spread of new technologies has accelerated in recent years. It can be assumed that this is a continuing trend and that technological innovations will spread even faster in the future, from which it can be concluded that the adaptation of blockchain technology and the crypto currencies based on it will also be affected by this accelerated spread.

In addition, a brief comparison will be made. One of the largest online trading companies, Amazon, a company that has not yet adapted the Bitcoin payment, is expected to have a market capitalization of $476 billion in 2017. The worldwide annual sales volume in 2016 was 135.99 billion USD and has grown steadily over the last 13 years. The crypto currency market as a whole thus has a capitalization equivalent to about a quarter of Amazon’s enterprise value. This comparison is intended to support the thesis of classification in the early adaptation of technology and at the same time serve as an assessment for the future development of the market, as the adaptation of digital currencies progresses as previously elaborated.


A comment on on this contribution also drew my attention to the connection between the progress of technology adaptation and production and process costs. In my opinion, this objection is very relevant, especially with regard to the blockchain, since the adaptation of this new technology requires some fundamentals. For example, a large organism has to move with it and adapt itself so that dissemination can be made possible at all. An example would be the topic of satellite television, where the infrastructure, i.e. the satellite in heaven, must first be available before this technology can be used nationwide or at all.

This basic formation is a more complex matter when it comes to blockchain and can therefore lead to a direct comparison of past technology adaptations – at least in part – running nowhere.

I don’t want to withhold this thought from you, even though I didn’t include it as a basis in my statement.

Although some time has passed since I wrote this article, I would still classify the progress in the Early Adopters category.

I would appreciate your opinion regarding this statement. Are we really still in the early stages – or are we beyond them? Write a comment!

Thanks for Reading!

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  1. Movingman Dan

    Its blatently going to have the same patterns as the internet for the safest example. If you ask me – I am really not certain where we are, but the only clear thing is, if your holding +1Btc right now, then you are early – and for the people with 10+ from a few years back, are the real early adopters.

    Following you and thanks for a quality article.

    1. B-S Post author

      Well, in the scenarios we often distinguish between innovators and early adopters. I think the people who came up with the topic until 2013 belong to this group. The following is the early adoption phase, in which, in my opinion, we still find ourselves, but not for too long.

      Somehow I missed your comment @movingman. But better a late answer than never.

  2. SouthernCrossroads

    Nice summary of the market. I have seen similar assumptions made in other articles. I confident your assessment is correct, but the volatility, largely artificially created, is the biggest monster under the bed. It is what is trying to control crypto through regulation. Large investors are shaping a small market to dominate the future utility of the market. I’m thinking we are in the chasm, but this bear market will shake out weak investors and topple weak projects. I am optimistic about the technology, but concerned about what will happen if the market sits in a bear run for another year. It has a distinct possibility of drastically reshaping the market.