This monthly technical analysis will provide a long-term view of BTC with filtering of monthly noise in this update for HODLers.  The long-term view can only be seen clearly on the monthly time frame. The monthly charts shown below will be used to support the long-term view.

Bitcoin monthly chart puts into perspective the big picture of what is happening. In the past nine months, Bitcoin has been in a downward-trend.  In this pattern, there has only been one other time when there was three consecutive months of red candles. Three red candles from March-May 2015 which followed with two months of green candles. This could indicate a high probability of November and December candles being green based on past history.  And as you see below, a green candle is already starting to form. In addition, with Bakkt opening up in December this could help fundamental technical to start momentum to the upside for BTC.

 

The monthly MACD chart indicator helps provide the full picture. The MACD histogram is showing five red bars that are in a downtrend pattern. Each bar represents a month. The bars on the histogram are evenly balanced on both sides most times as shown below in the green bars on graph. The largest bar has appeared meaning three to four months before bars could go to uptrend pattern. The downtrend pattern should move to the upside to begin the bull run.

The RSI is the final indicator to see long-term BTC. The Stoch RSI is position below 20 which will allow for momentum upwards. Eventually, the momentum will swing to the upside as trend reverse. It is positioned in a range to hopefully receive  momentum to get what is called the oversold bounce.

In conclusion, this subjective opinion is based on the knowledge and experience acquired in the crypto-arena. If long term assessment is viewed differently, provided a comment to enlighten perspective of what is happening with BTC.

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Responses

  1. Workin2005

    Nice post. I’m watching the larger ascending support line (on LOG scale) that’s been in place since late 2011. If it holds, we could see an explosion in price near the end of November. Should be an interesting month.

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