The world as we know in technology is moving towards a highly analytical and trend savvy. Highly successful companies like Amazon, Google and Facebook are using analytical data to sense their future before even attempting to spend any significant dollar amounts on projects. Amazon is particularly savvy in analyzing the user session data, user habits, related products etc. Google gmail shows some targeted personal advertisements based on your browsing history, shopping history, your preferences etc. Facebook is following similar data mining operations to target advertisements based on facebook users habits, friends, posts, affiliations, likes and various other personal preferences. Coke for example analyzes the past sales of its products, the country’s demographic information to target specific advertisements and drinks manufactured to suit the taste of emerging demographics in those countries.
Crypto is no exception in this regard. Crypto markets currently are highly speculative and highly volatile as there is not much adoption in the markets and not many real users using them on daily transactions etc. Long term hodlers of crypto are successful, but swing traders are even more successful than just hodling long term. Swing trading can be done using various technical analysis models, reading chart patterns, signals from sources etc. One of the simplest ways to swing trade in crypto especially since this market is in its nascent budding stages is trend swing trading. I am not coining yet another new term, but its simply following a simple google trend chart to make calculated decisions on trading. Simply follow the trends and you can be successful in trading or making money in crypto. As you all know the last 10 to 11 months have been brutal in crypto. The valuations of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin have retraced approximately 75% overall. Some of the altcoins have taken a heavier retracement closer to 95% overall.
Google trends is just a google portal which tracks the search results of any particular term based on its popularity. You can chart a term for historical purposes also. The link is shown below as well for your own research. To be successful in the field of crypto trading or crypto hodling, take for example a google trends chart for bitcoin in the last 12 months, which is shown below.
Google Trends Page: https://trends.google.com/trends/?geo=US
The more popular a search trend of a cryptocurrency is, the bigger the bubble value its really in. So based on the chart above your peak interest for bitcoin among the google trends was around December 2017 to January 2018 time frame. That was really the peak of the last bull market. This was the time when CBOE and CME futures markets for bitcoin where initiated. Two thirds of all the money in crypto was pumped into the market in the last two months of 2017 bull run. Lots of traders sold on the news and made mad profits during the last bull run, leaving a significant number of retail investors to bear the brunt of the losses. Seasoned traders like to think of themselves as smart money and they like to call retail investors dumb money or investors FOMO into crypto markets. Based on the trend sloping downwards and interest waning on bitcoin, if you could have sold bitcoin in say mid to end of January, you could have held significant profits compared to holding them all through 2018 till now.
Similarly take for example the second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum. Below you can see the google trends chart for Ethereum for the past 12 months. Looking at the chart below, there are a few peaks where public interest was really skyrocketing. Nobody can perfectly time peaks and bottoms in any market. Markets decide for themselves when to bottom out or when to peak based on investors interest and potential value propositions. There are double tops for Ethereum, once on (December 10th – December 16th) and second on (Jan 7th – Jan 13th). If you could have sold Ethereum when the interest was waning down after the fact that it peaked on December 16th, you could have held significant value in the coin. Even if you could have sold a portion of your Ethereum holdings after the second peak, you could have still held significant value. The point I am trying to make is follow the trends and you can be more successful than being a long term hodler, if you want to be a successful long term swing trader. You can always buy back into the same crypto currency when it bottoms out during the accumulation phase. You can think of an accumulation phase when the trends value is lesser than 25 to 30 for example. Hodling onto the coins for long term without swing trading also smooths out the wild swings but you will have lesser value compared to what you could potentially be worth overall.
Similarly take for example EOS as another example which has a pretty steady interest compared to the top two cryptocurrencies we discussed earlier. Looking below at the google trends chart for EOS for the past 12 months, its obvious that people are more interested on this project compared to bitcoin or Ethereum overall. The other way to look at it is, EOS has not peaked yet completely like bitcoin or Ethereum, its still in its infant stages. EOS has lot more people interested on the project compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. So potentially the gains you could have on EOS in the next bull run could be potentially much bigger compared to the other two coins discussed. Either way, if you had EOS for the past 12 months and if you could have sold a percentage of EOS when the interest peaked and its waning down, you could have gained more EOS than you originally had. If you wanted to increase the overall satoshi value of your crypto holdings, follow the trends and make trades based on peaking and waning interest on coins and you could be successful overall.
Let the trend be your friend while making a calculated decision to trade any crypto long term and you will turn out to be successful. Have fun trading and stay safe and cautious out there, in whats trending out to be the most volatile market ever.