Please click the link to listen to the 15th episode of my weekly crypto podcast ‘Two Minute Crypto‘. These are intended to be short, single-topic ramblings on some aspect of the cryptosphere. Comments and critiques welcome.

https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/two-minute-crypto-would-i-buy-crypto-now/id1441492450?i=1000424332370&mt=2

 

or

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-8tbud-9fdcfa

 

Transcript

 

Welcome to Two Minute Crypto – Am I still a buyer?

So, it’s been a relentlessly grim bear market this week. New lows followed by further lows – with little in the way of price support to be found. Bitcoin is bleeding, while its altcoin brethren are hemorrhaging value at an even faster rate. So all is lost….of course not. I’m out of the market…your joking?

Now am I simply buying the dip – no I’m not. I am, however, continuing to dollar cost average into the projects I see long-term value in. I’m not chasing the bottom or even concerned about a falling knife. I’ve long ago set my investment thesis in relation to a small number of large-cap projects whose fundamentals I feel confident about. A sudden and sharp dip in their short-term valuation isn’t something I’m trying to capitalize on or run away from. My investment plan for each of these cryptos is current within a range and at the moment I’m accumulating a little more of each at the same rate I was 3 months ago.

What I’m not doing is searching for low-cap gems, pending ICO’s or coins about to pump. None of these would likely see a return in the current bear market and the wasted effort and mental energy can be better spent elsewhere such as learning ever more about this incredibly stimulating cryptoverse unfolding before us.

Am I then a buyer to zero – absolutely not -for all the projects I currently dollar cost average into, I have a buying range above or below which I will stop and take stock. As a concrete example, I first bought EOS at roughly $3 dollars and stopped purchasing after $6, once price dropped back below $6 I started buying again – small regular installments. I will stop these purchases at $2 dollars and reconsider the project and market at that point. If we bounce along between $2 to $6 dollars I’ll continue to accumulate until my final position target is reached. At current price that would be roughly 3 months away.

So, am I filled with the joys of crypto giving – well no but neither am I done with the market and despair plays no role in my investment decisions. Is it possible all crypto will go to zero…sure but is it likely… of course not. Investing is a probabilities game like much else in life and I still like these odds.

Thanks for listening.

21 votes, average: 5.00 out of 521 votes, average: 5.00 out of 521 votes, average: 5.00 out of 521 votes, average: 5.00 out of 521 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (21 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
(3261 total tokens earned)
Loading...

Responses

  1. Adil Elias

    Somehow I just can’t see cryptos going to zero, maybe it’s the normalcy bias from my side but as you said, emotions shouldn’t play any role in investing. 🙂

    Thanks for sharing with us your thoughts and your reasonings, it’s refreshing in a world full with acronyms and catchy words.

    P.S: Will come back to rate later!

    (0)
    1. CryptosDecrypted Post author

      Hey @the-alien. I agree the zero thesis would only hold if crypto and blockchain had no utility – which for example BTC clearly does (as a currency free from intermediaries). So lots of projects will eventually fail but not all of them as the use case is already a given imo. Cheers.

      (1)
  2. Zeus69

    Great article CD, people jump ship so easily and then sorry when it “moons”, I am a hodlr my friend always will be, will be buying more soon. But in saying that I need to be a little more careful on what I buy. EOS?
    Regards,
    Mark (Zeus69)

    (0)
    1. CryptosDecrypted Post author

      When trend reversal? Impossible for anyone to say with authority but my personal thesis is roughly $80 billion market cap would likely be near a bottom or more specifically 1.5k BTC . I say that for a plethora of reasons but primarily because at that point the market would be very oversold (it might stay that way for a year or more). Weak, pointless projects will probably never bounce back. If you hold such projects – switch the capital into other alts that have fallen about as much but which you still believe in. Cheers.

      (0)
  3. Ilia

    I as well as you ceased to pay attention to falling of quotations. I stubbornly buy EOS and found certain advantages in the bear market. For me it was a good opportunity to buy altcoins on DEX exchange (I mean altcoins on EOS). As always a great job! Thanks @CryptosDecrypted

    (0)
  4. Miguel A. Cabanes

    When I started with the cryptocurrencies I was a real “hot hand” and, although I had my earnings, I did not earn everything that I could have earned (that would have made my life dizzy) because it was so; then I told myself that I should focus on the long term and I accumulated and never sold, so now I’m holding the pull and seeing how everything goes down and down….
    But you know? After these years in this world I think I have developed a certain empathy with the blockchain and I am telling myself that we must bear the weight of these things on our shoulders if we want the blockchain to last and keep growing.
    Probably I’m wrong, who knows….

    (0)
    1. CryptosDecrypted Post author

      Me too @dresden. I came to speculate but I’ve stayed because I love the space. I’ve learned more engaging with crypto than anything in many years. Blockchain and it’s applications is only in it’s first use-case phase – lots more to do and see in the coming years!

      (0)