Congratulation. You were lucky to be part of history to see one of the worst November on record for Bitcoin. However, the positive side is that Bitcoin experienced the same four consecutive months of red bars back in Jul-Aug 2014. If history repeats, this month should be followed with a green bar on the MACD chart below. We will see? This is my one-year anniversary in the crypto-environment this month. My first-year experience in crypto was a live and learn ordeal. I will share some lessons learned that I believe newcomers can profit from what I experienced and the knowledge gained. From the start, I only invested a small percentage in the cryptocurrency market due to my conservative nature of being new and not knowing the risk of the market. I have held, listened, learned and accumulated. Presently, I am sitting at a 74% decrease in portfolio due to holding and not understanding the market. As mentioned, I consider myself knowledgeable but there are some smart guys Daniel4k, Alessio Rastani, Sunny Decree, and BitcoinChris to name a few that I follow.
The first lesson learned on the technical side of Bitcoin requires that you look “LEFT” when performing analysis on Bitcoin charts. You can’t predict the future by looking right but you can look left at patterns formed throughout Bitcoin’s history. And, history is a good indicator of what could happen in the future. Presently, there is a similar pattern in 2015 that bitcoin seems to be following. It took 8 months to get to a bull run of 2017. More on that later. The second lesson learned is “Don’t allow your portfolio to follow the market in a downtrend.” For that reason, my status has changed from Hodler to Wave Trader. A Wave Trader provides a higher chance of making a profit rather than holding watching your portfolio follow the downtrend of the market to 80% that will probably see 85%. Sounds like I should have put in a stop-loss? I am not a trader. It is similar to a Trend Trader but this method allows putting money in at the most profitable time which I am doing having not gone all in at the beginning. I picked up EOS at $2.94.
To understand the market, it moves in 5 waves in an uptrend or downtrend pattern as shown below. The wave retracts mathematically using Fibonacci retracement. Bitcoin retraces like steps goes up then step back down. Knowing which wave that is likely underway can give you to higher probability to make better decisions. And, help forecast what the price is likely to do next. Trading in wave 2 & 4 in a downtrend would be best wave due to the price making an upward move in a downtrend market. Having this information allows for i.e. movement of funds to and from a stablecoin to lessen the loss in a downtrend market and provide a better chance of making a profit.
Bitcoin is about to end Wave 3 that indicates an upward move coming. Looking for an impulse coming approximately mid-month or about. With that said, remember there will be a downward move to Wave 5. The bull run cannot happen until Bitcoin is in an uptrend. The MACD chart is showing Bitcoin is still on a downtrend by red bars. Expect next four months of red bars as momentum ends around March of 2019. When the red bars turn green, Bitcoin ends Wave 5. The Stoch RSI chart is indicating a reversal move by the crossover signal line in overbought territory. Once crossover is confirmed, the reversal pattern will shift from downward to upward.
This is advice based on my experience and knowledge in the field of crypto-currency and blockchain technology to be used accordingly. With Bakkt delayed and approval of an ETF probably out of the question, there is no real catalyst to bring volume into the market until next year. Fundamentally, Bakkt, Fidelity, and NASDAQ should give momentum these upcoming months. Now, it is all about Patience which is one of my best attributes. Do some research on how to be patience because if Bitcoin continues to follows its present 2015 pattern, we will be waiting until September 2019 for a bull run to start. With the institutional money coming, hopefully this will allow Bitcoin to break its current pattern to prevent that from happening. All I can say, even being down, I have positioned myself whenever Bitcoin’s bull run start. Early adopters get the $$.
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